Chris you just ruined this entire thread for me. I was going to punk every body down with that exact info from this big 16 year study they did up in Maine.
You're exactly right though, according to what I read. It's pretty amazing stuff. They call it the rutting moon, and it's the second full moon after the autumn equinox (at least around Maine, still trying to do research to see what time that would be here), and it's HIGHLY possible this triggers everything.
This moon phase occurs at different times nearly every year, but some years, it falls about the same time as the year before, so that is why sometimes deer seem to be rutting on schedule, and other times, they seem to be way off.
The hypothesis is this: At some point in autumn, the amount of sunlight decreases enough to reset the whitetail's reproductive clock, thus placing the breeding season sometime around November (around when the time changes). Once a doe's reproductive cycle is reset by a specific amount of daylight, her estrous cycle is ready to be cued by moonlight, which provides a bright light stimulus to the pineal gland several nights in a row each lunar month. Then, the rapid decrease in lunar brightness during the moon's third quarter triggers hormonal production by the pineal gland. Physiological changes prompted by the pineal gland culminate in ovulation and estrus.
A doe's estrogen level peaks around November 1 as does a buck's sperm count. With both sexes poised to breed, it stands to reason a mechanism must be in place if the doe is to enter estrus and be bred under the darker phases of the moon, which are the third through first quarters. That mechanism in the North (north of about the 35th latitude) is usually the second full moon after the autumnal equinox.
But there is more to the story. There are also rut suppressors, like high doe to buck ratios. Bucks simply aren't going to have to move if there is a doe around every corner. Hence, hunters complaining they aren't seeing any bucks and haven't seen any chasing.
Temperature is also a rut suppressor. They found that any temps above 45 degrees greatly reduced deer movement (keep in mind this is in Maine, so that temperature indicator could and probably does vary here)
Human pressure is a huge suppressor too, of course.
