WINTER FISHING PREDICTION BY JOHN BERRY

[Kevin]

WINTER FISHING PREDICTION

BY JOHN BERRY

Last year I began the New Year with an article on my resolutions for the year. This year I thought that I would do something completely different. Since I have had limited success with keeping my resolutions from last year, I thought that this year I would concentrate on my fishing predictions for the rest of the winter. Winter is my favorite season to fish. When I look at photos of my bigger fish, I notice that most are taken in the winter. There are no leaves on the trees and there is frequently snow on the ground. There are fewer anglers on the rivers and this is a great time to get a bit of solitude.

 

So far we have had a very mild winter. While I do expect some cold weather, I think we are going to have plenty of sunny days in the 50’s and 60’s with little wind. These days are a well kept secret here in the Twin Lakes Area. I was actually fishing in my shirt sleeves just last week.

 

I predict significant periods of wadable water in the next few months. The lakes are all currently below flood pool. For the last few months the Corps of Engineers has aggressively drawn down the lakes after any significant rain event. The long range weather forecast is for below normal rainfall. This could only mean one thing, Low Water! While the lakes are below flood pool, they are all near the top of power pool. This means that, if the weather turns cold and there is a large demand for power, there is plenty of water in the lakes to generate it.

 

With warmer temperatures and lower water, we should have perfect conditions for some winter dry fly fishing. This time of year is a great time to fish dries and emergers. There are Blue Wing Olive hatches on sunny days. These are tiny mayflies that will best be matched with small parachute Adams (size 20, 22 & 24). If you prefer to nymph during this hatch, try small pheasant tail nymphs. The other major hatch will be various midges. For dries, Griffith’s gnat is the go to midge cluster pattern. The most effective way to fish the midge hatch is with emergers. Dan’s turkey tail emergers and Chuck’s emergers are must have patterns. For nymphs the zebra midge in black, brown and red (size 18. 20. & 22) is a go to fly.

 

If you want to try something a bit different try a big dry fly like a grass hopper. I know that hopper season traditionally ends with the first frost of the season. The fish do not have a thermometer or a calendar. If they are feeding on the top and see a big tasty morsel drifting toward them, they just might instinctively take it. How else can you explain trout hitting your strike indicator?

 

With low water and milder temperatures, I predict a spectacular opening day. On February 1, the Catch and Release section below Bull Shoals Dam will reopen after being closed since November 1, 2011 to protect the big browns during their spawn. On this day, there will be more big fish concentrated in one area than anywhere else in Arkansas. They have not fed during the spawn and they are hungry.

 

There is also the shad kill looming on the horizon. This is a natural phenomenon where threadfin shad in Bull Shoals and Norfork Lakes are killed by low water temperatures and drawn through the generators. This usually occurs just after opening day and the chunks of shad create a feeding frenzy, on the upper rivers. The key ingredients are low temperatures and high levels of generation. With my prediction for mild temperatures and low levels of generation for the winter, the possibility of a significant shad kill is in question. Who knows? It is important to remember that the weather could turn on a dime. With temperatures dropping and heavy generation to meet the power demands brought on by the colder temperatures, we could have a heavy shad kill.

 

My predictions are simple, a milder winter and lower water. These are the conditions that can create a great winter of fishing. I am looking forward to this. I hope to see you out there.